Figure 4: Schematic of two offsetting factors that can suppress future TC PI.

Offset 1 is derived from the remote SST warming, while offset 2 is from the subsurface ocean thermal gradient sharpening and OCE enhancement. (a) Strong offset 2 is the situation over the MDRs over the WNP and the NA. (b) Weak offset 2 is the situation over the NA warm belt region. (c–e) The trends of SST_PI (red) and OC_PI (blue) for TC scenario 8 over the WNP MDR, the NA MDR and the NA warm belt. The thick (thin) curves represent the MME (22 individual member) results. Atm., atmosphere.