Figure 6: Observed trends and model simulated changes in summer monsoon precipitation in response to Indian Ocean warming.

(a) Observed trend in precipitation (CRU data, 1901–2012, mm day⁻¹) and near-surface winds (NCEP, 1948–2012, m s⁻¹), for June-September. (b) Model-simulated mean precipitation (mm day⁻¹) and wind (10 m) anomalies (m s⁻¹) in response to warming over the western Indian Ocean. The model-simulated anomalies are estimated from the sensitivity run where SST anomalies of the order of 1.5 °C is introduced over the western Indian Ocean (CFSv2_WIO), with respect to a model control run (CFSv2_CTL).