Figure 3
From: The demographic transition and economic growth: implications for development policy

The log-Bayes factor plots for the ΔC and ΔA models as a function of the lag in G and C, respectively. (The Bayes factor values are reported in the log scale). The ΔC model suggests that a lag time of around 5 years in G is the best parameter for the ΔC models. A long lead time is suggested for C in the ΔA model.