Fig. 1: Progression to schizophrenia.

a Progression from a lower ranked psychotic diagnosis to schizophrenia. The three panels show individuals who at some point in time had psychotic MDD, BD or SAD as their most severely ranked psychotic diagnosis but later progressed to schizophrenia compared to the individuals who remained at the corresponding lower ranked diagnoses. The results show that a larger proportion of individuals with a high SZ-PGS progressed to schizophrenia (combined HR = 1.23 [1.15-1.31], p = 6.42e-10). [SZ-PGS levels: Low = bottom <20%; Middle=20-60%; High = >80%; ⁽¹⁾ Number of individuals who progressed to schizophrenia; ⁽²⁾ Number of individuals who remained at the specific lower ranked diagnosis.]. b Genetic map of SUPER participants. Polygenic composition of individuals with the four major psychotic diagnoses according to their hierarchical ranking, including the group that progressed to schizophrenia from an initial lower ranked diagnosis (orange). The psychotic and affective dimensions are proxied by the SZ-PGS and MDD-PGS respectively (mean PGS with error bars showing 95% Cl). The progression group displayed a higher SZ-PGS than any of the lower ranked diagnostic groups (p = 0.0178 (SAD), p = 3.06e-16 (BD) and p = 1.95e−07 (psychotic MDD)). [y-axis: SZ-PGS; x-axis: MDD-PGS; *=only individuals who had schizophrenia as their first major psychotic disorder].