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The effects of adverse life events on brain development in the ABCD study®: a propensity-weighted analysis

Abstract

Longitudinal studies of the effects of adversity on human brain development are complicated by the association of stressful events with confounding variables. To counter this bias, we apply a propensity-weighted analysis of the first two years of The Adolescent Brain Cognitive DevelopmentSM (ABCD) Study® data, employing a machine learning analysis weighted by individuals’ propensity to experience adversity. Data included 338 resting-state functional connections from 7190 youth (46% female), divided into a training group (80%) and an independent testing group (20%). Propensity scores were computed using 390 variables to balance across two-year adverse life event exposures. Using elastic net regularization with and without inverse propensity weighting, we developed linear models in which changes in functional connectivity of brain connections during the two-year period served as predictors of the number of adverse events experienced during that same period. Haufe’s method was applied to forward-transform the backward prediction models. We also tested whether brain changes associated with adverse events correlated with concomitant changes in internalizing or externalizing behaviors or to academic achievement. In the propensity-weighted analysis, brain development significantly predicted the number of adverse events experienced during that period in both the training group (ρ = 0.14, p < 0.001) and the independent testing group (ρ = 0.10, p < 0.001). The predictor indicated a general pattern of decreased functional connectivity between large-scale networks and subcortical brain regions, particularly for cingulo-opercular and sensorimotor networks. These network-to-subcortical functional connectivity decreases inversely associated with the development of internalizing symptoms, suggesting adverse events promoted adaptive brain changes that may buffer against stress-related psychopathology. However, these same functional connections were also associated with poorer grades at the two-year follow-up. Although cortical-subcortical brain developmental responses to adversity potentially shield against stress-induced mood and anxiety disorders, they may be detrimental to other domains such as academic success.

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Fig. 1: Circular plot of functional connections with significant negative (blue lines) associations with predicted values for the unweighted (left) and propensity-weighted (right) analyses.
Fig. 2: Functional connectivity by time point and number of adverse life events.
Fig. 3: Estimated effects of adverse life events on functional connectivity.

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Data availability

Data used in this study is publically available and was downloaded from the NIMH Data Archive (https://nda.nih.gov/).

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Acknowledgements

Data used in the preparation of this article were obtained from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive DevelopmentSM (ABCD) Study (https://abcdstudy.org), held in the NIMH Data Archive (NDA). This is a multisite, longitudinal study designed to recruit more than 10,000 children age 9–10 and follow them over 10 years into early adulthood. The ABCD Study is supported by the National Institutes of Health and additional federal partners under award numbers U01DA041048, U01DA050989, U01DA051016, U01DA041022, U01DA051018, U01DA051037, U01DA050987, U01DA041174, U01DA041106, U01DA041117, U01DA041028, U01DA041134, U01DA050988, U01DA051039, U01DA041156, U01DA041025, U01DA041120, U01DA051038, U01DA041148, U01DA041093, U01DA041089, U24DA041123, U24DA041147. A full list of supporters is available at https://abcdstudy.org/federal-partners.html. A listing of participating sites and a complete listing of the study investigators can be found at https://abcdstudy.org/consortium_members/. ABCD consortium investigators designed and implemented the study and/or provided data but did not necessarily participate in the analysis or writing of this report. This manuscript reflects the views of the authors and may not reflect the opinions or views of the NIH or ABCD consortium investigators. The ABCD data repository grows and changes over time. The ABCD data used in this report came from 10.15154/1523041. DOIs can be found at https://doi.org/10.15154/1523041. AE was supported by K01AA026334. BL was supported by K01AA026893.

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AE was involved in conceptualization, formal analysis, writing the original draft, and visualization of figures; BL contributed to conceptualization and reviewing and editing of the manuscript; SJN contributed to conceptualization and reviewing and editing the manuscript.

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Elton, A., Lewis, B. & Nixon, S.J. The effects of adverse life events on brain development in the ABCD study®: a propensity-weighted analysis. Mol Psychiatry 30, 2463–2474 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41380-024-02850-9

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