Table 3 Counterfactual predictions by treatment arm and observed outcome.

From: Towards causal inference-based antidepressant selection with brain and blood biomarkers

Placebo Arm

Stage 2 treatment

Observed Outcome

Mean prediction of remission if patient treated with Sertraline

Mean prediction of remission if patient remained on Placebo

Placebo

Non-remitters

0.42*

0.47

Placebo

Remitters

0.52*

0.93

Sertraline

Non-remitters

0.40

0.83*

Sertraline

Remitters

0.60

0.90*

Sertraline Arm

Stage 2 treatment

Observed Outcome

Mean prediction of remission if patient remained on Sertraline

Mean prediction of remission if patient treated with Bupropion

Sertraline

Non-remitters

0.55

0.35*

Sertraline

Remitters

0.72

0.29*

Bupropion

Non-remitters

0.64*

0.25

Bupropion

Remitters

0.57*

0.39

  1. *Indicates counterfactual prediction.
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