Fig. 3: Estimated effects of difference in baseline and change in waist circumference and physical activity on SBP.

Example plots showing the estimated effect of differences in baseline and the effect of change in a waist circumference (WC) and b physical activity (PA) on SBP. These hypothetical scenarios show that children who had increased central adiposity in Grade 7 (increased WC of 5 cm compared to the mean) and children who increased their central adiposity (increased WC by 5 cm over the 4-year measurement period) had higher SBP in Grade 11 than children who maintained the mean WC or children who had increased central adiposity at baseline and reduced their central adiposity (decreased WC of 5 cm over the 4-year measurement period). Similar trends were seen for PA, with less active children or children who reduced their PA over the 4-year measurement period having higher SBP at Grade 11.