Fig. 2: Regions predictive of relapse and their relationship to the predicted probability of relapse

Top row illustrates anatomical locations of cortical and subcortical regions most important to relapse prediction. The middle row indicates the posterior probability of individual relapse over an observed range (minimum to maximum in 20 even increments) of region ratios locally averaged across 10 bootstrapped resamples of the data set and refitted to the derived classifier. A non-parametric LOESS model was fit to the predicted responses. Points about each line indicate predicted probabilities from each resample while rugs of each plot indicate the density of observed values in the whole sample. The bottom row illustrates corresponding distributions of random forest decision points (black) for these regions across underlying 1000 classification trees in the determination of relapse status. These are compared to distributions of these regions for relapsing (red) and non-relapsing (blue) patients