Table 4 Ordinal prediction analyses for the whole group: for RFs only (M1), age-14 distress only (M2), and RFs and age-14 distress together (M3).

From: Embracing the positive: an examination of how well resilience factors at age 14 can predict distress at age 17

 

M1: RFs only

M2: D14 only

M3: RFs and D14

 

Observed

Predicted

Observed

Predicted

Observed

Predicted

Residual deviance

1420.35

1390.41

1392.83

ROC

Low = 0.70

Mod = 0.65

High = 0.75

Low = 0.69

Mod = 0.68

High = 0.71

Low = 0.69

Mod = 0.68

High = 0.74

Sensitivity

Low = 0.83

Mod = 0.54

High = 0.00

Low = 0.79

Mod = 0.53

High = 0.00

Low = 0.82

Mod = 0.53

High = 0.00

Specificity

Low = 0.52

Mod = 0.79

High = 1.00

Low = 0.50

Mod = 0.76

High = 1.00

Low = 0.52

Mod = 0.77

High = 1.00

Accuracy

0.64

Low = 0.68

Mod = 0.66

High = 0.50

0.62

Low = 0.65

Mod = 0.64

High = 0.50

0.63

Low = 0.67

Mod = 0.65

High = 0.50

Low distress severity

155

189 of which

—129 correct

—44 false mod

—16 false high

155

186 of which

—123 correct

—46 false mod

—17 false high

155

187 of which

—127 correct

—45 false mod

—15 false high

Mod distress severity

97

91 of which

—52 correct

—26 false low

—13 false high

97

95 of which

—51 correct

—32 false low

—12 false high

97

93 of which

—51 correct

—28 false low

—14 false high

High distress severity

29

1 of which

—00 correct

—00 false low

—01 false mod

29

0 of which

—00 correct

—00 false low

—00 false mod

29

1 of which

— 00 correct

— 00 false low

— 01 false mod

  1. All models were computed with childhood adversity and gender as predictors. Variable for which the proportional odds assumption was relaxed can be found in Supplementary VI. D14 age-14 distress, Mod moderate, ROC receiver operating characteristic, Accuracy relative number of correctly predicted cases, Sensitivity e.g. for low distress: the number of adolescents who are correctly predicted into the low distress group divided by all adolescent who are actually in the low distress group, Specificity e.g. for low distress: the number of adolescents who are correctly not predicted into the low distress group divided by all adolescent who are actually not in the low distress group.