Table 1 Performance of the final score-based model predicting diagnostic transition from major depressive disorder (MDD) to bipolar disorder (BD) within one year, in “training” US datasets.

From: Predictors of diagnostic transition from major depressive disorder to bipolar disorder: a retrospective observational network study

Data Source

AUC (95% CI)

Sample size (met inclusion criteria)

Outcome count

Outcome %

MDCR

0.632 (0.608–0.656)

48,979

609

1.243

MDCD

0.662 (0.658–0.666)

253,811

15,789

6.221

CCAE

0.690 (0.687–0.693)

677,233

24,325

3.592

Optum EHR

0.714 (0.712–0.717)

1,187,111

26,070

2.196

Optum claims

0.745 (0.742–0.748)

520,444

14,301

2.748

  1. MDCR IBM MarketScan Medicare Supplemental Database, MDCD IBM MarketScan Multi-State Medicaid Database, CCAE IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database, Optum EHR Optum De-identified Electronic Health Record Dataset, Optum claims Optum De-Identified Clinformatics Data Mart Database, AUC area under the curve, CI confidence interval.
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