Table 1 Model inputs and parameters.

From: Psilocybin-assisted therapy for treatment-resistant depression in the US: a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis

Input	Base value (SD)	Range^a	Distribution in probabilistic analysis	Source
Third-line weekly probabilities
Pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy^b
MDD to remission	0.026 (0.0013)	0.0234–0.0286	Beta	Rush et al. [17]
MDD to response	0.0049 (0.0003)	0.0044–0.0054	Beta	Rush et al. [17]
Remission to MDD	0.0353 (0.0018)	0.0318–0.0388	Beta	Rush et al. [17]
Response to MDD	0.1121 (0.0057)	0.1009–0.1233	Beta	Rush et al. [17]
ECT
MDD to remission	0.1629 (0.0083)	0.1466–0.1792	Beta	Dierckx et al. [32]
MDD to response	0.0418 (0.0021)	0.0376–0.046	Beta	Dierckx et al. [32]
Remission to MDD	0.045 (0.0023)	0.0405–0.0495	Beta	Ross et al. [27]
Response to MDD	0.1634 (0.0083)	0.147–0.1797	Beta	Same as pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy
Esketamine
MDD to remission	0.1402 (0.0072)	0.1261–0.1542	Beta	Fedgchin et al. [33], Popova et al. [34]
MDD to response	0.0441 (0.0022)	0.0397–0.0485	Beta	Fedgchin et al. [33], Popova et al. [34]
Remission to MDD	0.018 (0.0009)	0.0162–0.0198	Beta	Daly et al. [92]
Response to MDD	0.0796 (0.0041)	0.0716–0.0876	Beta	Daly et al. [92]
PAT
MDD to remission	0.1079 (0.0055)	0.0971–0.1187	Beta	Goodwin et al. [16]
MDD to response	0.0274 (0.0014)	0.0247–0.0302	Beta	Goodwin et al. [16]
Remission to MDD	0.0353 (0.0018)	0.0318–0.0388	Beta	Same as pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy
Response to MDD	0.1121 (0.0057)	0.1009–0.1233	Beta	Same as pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy
Fourth-line weekly transition probabilities^c
MDD to remission	0.0186 (0.001)	0.0168–0.0205	Beta	Rush et al. [17]
MDD to response	0.0047 (0.0002)	0.0042–0.0051	Beta	Rush et al. [17]
Remission to MDD	0.067 (0.0034)	0.0603–0.0737	Beta	Rush et al. [17]
Response to MDD	0.12 (0.0061)	0.108–0.132	Beta	Rush et al. [17]
Response to remission^d	0.0027 (0.0001)	0.0025–0.003	Beta	Hermens et al. [43], Meeks et al. [40], Richards et al. [41], Wagner et al. [42], Whiteford et al. [44]
Remission to response^d	0.0013 (0.0001)	0.0011–0.0014	Beta	Judd et al. [39], Sobocki et al. [38]
Total cost of third-line MDD treatment (US$)
Pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy^c	36 (4.59)	27–45	Gamma	2018 [47]
ECT	5409 (690)	4057–6761	Gamma	Agbese et al. [48], Ross et al. [27]
Esketamine	5882 (750)	4412–7353	Gamma	Brendle et al. [35]
PAT	5000 (NA)	3000–20000	NA	Assumed by authors^e
Uptake of third-line SOC therapies
Pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy	99.59%	NA	NA	Calculated by authors^f
ECT	0.25%	NA	NA	Calculated by authors^f
Esketamine	0.16%	NA	NA	Calculated by authors^f
Weekly costs (US$)^g
Maintenance and continuation treatment^h
ECT	225 (29)	169–282	Gamma	Agbese et al. [48], Ross et al. [27]
Esketamine	1059 (135)	794–1324	Gamma	Brendle et al. [35]
Other healthcare
MDD	174 (22)	130–217	Gamma	Amos et al. [47]
Response	118 (15)	89–148	Gamma	Amos et al. [47]
Productivityⁱ	155 (36)	84–226	Gamma	Zhdanava et al. [6]
Health utilities^j
MDD	0.5 (0.038)	0.43–0.58	Beta	Balázs et al. [54]
Response	0.75 (0.043)	0.67–0.84	Beta	Balázs et al. [54]
Remission	0.82 (0.048)	0.72–0.91	Beta	Balázs et al. [54]

ECT electroconvulsive therapy, MDD major depressive disorder, NA not applicable, PAT psilocybin-assisted therapy, SD standard deviation.
^aWhere available, ranges and SDs were taken from the original reference or source. Otherwise, authors applied ±25% to the base value to construct a range, and an SD was estimated by dividing the range by 4.
^b“Pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy” includes the set of recommended step therapy for MDD. These treatments, together with ECT and esketamine, constitute the “standard of care” for TRD to which PAT is being compared.
^cIn this study, individuals who fail third-line therapy receive pharmacotherapy for their fourth-line and succeeding therapies.
^dThese probabilities apply to all lines of therapy.
^eThe cost of PAT has not been established and was deterministically varied by the authors to understand how changes in the cost of PAT affects its economic value as a third-line therapy for MDD.
^fCalculated by the authors based on previously reported estimates of treatment uptake. See Table A1 in S2 Appendix.
^gAdditional cost inputs are found in Table A3 in S2 Appendix.
^hMaintenance treatment refers to additional cycles of therapy that are provided to individuals who achieve remission and/or response after the initial treatment.
ⁱThese productivity costs include the absenteeism and presenteeism of TRD.
^jThese annual health utilities were transformed to weekly utilities to match the cycle length in the model.

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Table 1 Model inputs and parameters.

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