Table 2 Summary of risk of progression over time, grouped by the SMM risk categorization.

		Mayo 2018 low risk (score 0), IMWG 2020 low risk (score ≤4)				Mayo 2018 intermediate risk (score 1), IMWG 2020 low-intermediate risk (score 5–8)				Mayo 2018 high risk (score ≥2), IMWG 2020 intermediate & high risk (score ≥9)^b
Years post diagnosis	Total n	n	2-year prog (%)	5-year prog (%)	HR	n	2-year prog (%)	5-year prog (%)	HR^a (95% CI), p value	n	2-year prog (%)	5-year prog (%)	HR^a (95% CI), p value
Mayo 2018 score (5)
Baseline	704	271	7.8	28.4	Ref	228	19.2	41.8	1.7 (1.2–2.2), p < 0.001	205	40	67.1	3.3 (2.5–4.4), p = <0.001
1 year	430	142	10	27.1	Ref	146	27.5	47.3	2.3 (1.5–3.5), p < 0.001	142	50.9	72.8	5.1 (3.5–7.6), p = <0.001
2 years	326	112	9.1	21.1	Ref	115	26.7	44.6	2.1 (1.3–3.5), p = 0.003	99	59.5	78.4	5.9 (3.6–9.6), p = <0.001
3 years	260	90	12.7	18.5	Ref	83	21.4	34.5	1.8 (1–3.1), p = 0.054	87	47.4	67.6	4.2 (2.6–6.9), p = <0.001
4 years	203	74	9.9	12.3	Ref	78	20.9	32	1.9 (1–3.8), p = 0.05	51	47.2	65.3	4.7 (2.5–9.1), p = <0.001
5 years	147	54	1.9	8	Ref	55	19.7	33.5	2.8 (1.2–6.4), p = 0.013	38	45.9	72.2	7.4 (3.4-15.8), p = <0.001
IMWG 2020 score (6)
Baseline	264	90	9.1	32.5	Ref	111	21.4	49.3	2.3 (1.3–3.9), p = 0.003	63	49.9	79.5	5.1 (2.9–8.9), p < 0.001
1 year	197	58	14.4	36.1	Ref	68	22.3	49.3	1.2 (0.8–2.8), p = 0.179	71	62.4	80	4.3 (2.4–7.5), p < 0.001
2 years	143	44	12	23.9	Ref	56	28.6	44.9	2 (0.9–4.3), p = 0.095	43	64.5	89.3	5.4 (2.5–11.6), p < 0.001
3 years	106	32	16.4	22.3	Ref	36	19.3	54.2	1.7 (0.6–4.2), p = 0.292	38	62.2	71.7	4.5 (1.9–10.6), p < 0.001
4 years	73	23	18.6	30.2	Ref	26	27.3	56.4	1.8 (1–3.3), p = 0.043	24	45.1	45.1	2.3 (0.8–6.7), p = 0.115

^aThe comparator group is the low-risk SMM patients.
^bGiven the limited sample size of IMWG 2020 high-risk patients over time (n = 9 at baseline, n = 15 at the 1 year landmark, n = 9 at the 2-year landmark, n = 7 a the 3-year landmark, n = 8 at the 4-year landmark), the intermediate and high risk IMWG 2020 groups were combined.

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