Fig. 1: Predicted 5-year overall survival probability* using the Linear Predictor (LP).

For example, for a patient aged 75 years (i.e., <80 y), with ECOG performance status>1, secondary AML, WBC ≤ 50 G/L, favorable cytogenetic risk and unknown NPM1 or FLT3-ITD mutation, ESS70 + score was equal to 0 + 3 + 1 + 0 + 0 – 1 = 3 and predicted 5-year overall probability was equal to 0.062. ECOG Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group, WBC white blood cell count, NPM1+ NPM1 mutation, fav favorable, Int intermediate, pt(s), point(s). *S(t/LP) = S0(t)exp(β.LP) where S0(t) is the survival function of the baseline population with LP = 0 (i.e., the 5-year survival probability of the population having a LP = 0), called the baseline survival function and equal to 0.183 in the complete cases training set; β = 0.965; LP = 0.71 (if age≥80 y) + 0.47 (if ECOG performance status>1) + 0.68 (if adverse cytogenetic risk) + 0.51 (if unknown cytogenetic risk) + 0.35 (if WBC > 50 G/L) + 0.19 (if secondary AML) − 0.31 (if NPM1+ and FLT3-ITD−) − 0.15 (if unknown NPM1 or FLT3-ITD). ^#Discrepancies between predicted 5-year overall survival probability and ESS70+ were due to rounded off to the nearest integer of each point (β-coefficient/abs(lowest β-coefficient)) of ESS70+.