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Trends in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation survival using population-based descriptive epidemiology method: analysis of national transplant registry data

Abstract

Prognosis for patients undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) has been improving. Short-term survival information, such as crude survival rates that consider deaths immediately after the transplantation, may not be sufficiently useful for assessing long-term survival. Using the data of the Japanese HCT registry, the net survival rate of patients who survived for a given period was determined according to age, disease, and type of transplant. We included a total of 41,716 patients who received their first allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation between 1991 and 2015. For each disease, age group, graft source subcategory, net survival was calculated using the Pohar-Perme method, and 5-year conditional net survival (CS) was calculated. Ten-year net survivals of total patient cohort were 41.5% and 47.4% for males and females, respectively. Except for myelodysplastic syndrome, multiple myeloma, and adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma, 5-year CS for 5-year transplant survivors exceeded 90%. CS was especially high for aplastic anemia, of which was over 100% for children and younger adults receiving cord blood, suggesting that these patients have similar longevity to an equivalent group from the general population. These findings provide useful information for long-term survival, and can serve as benchmark for comparisons among registries, including other cancers.

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Fig. 1: Net survival estimates of overall patients by sex and disease.
Fig. 2: Five-year conditional net survivals of the all-patient cohort and younger adults who have survived up to 5 years after transplantation.
Fig. 3: Five-year conditional net survival of children and older adults who have survived up to 5 years after transplantation.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are not publicly available due to ethical restrictions that it exceeds the scope of the recipient/donor’s consent for research use in the registry but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request and with permission of the JSTCT/JDCHCT.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the physicians and staff at the transplant centers for providing clinical data to the registry. They also thank the staff at the JDCHCT for data management. This study was funded in part by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers 17K08911 and 22K10360 from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.

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YK, HI, KT, TK, FK, JK, YA and KM designed the research and contributed to critical review of the manuscript. YK, HI, YA and KM analyzed data, YK performed statistical analysis and wrote the first draft of the manuscript. All the other authors contributed to data collection. All authors approved the final version.

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Correspondence to Yachiyo Kuwatsuka.

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Kuwatsuka, Y., Ito, H., Tabuchi, K. et al. Trends in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation survival using population-based descriptive epidemiology method: analysis of national transplant registry data. Bone Marrow Transplant 59, 1295–1301 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41409-024-02326-y

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