Table 4 Calculation of additional deaths from delayed diagnosis of screen detected cancers which remain screen-detected.
Quantity | Calculation |
|---|---|
Expected cancer diagnoses | 0.0069 × 1,489,237 = 10,276 |
Removal of cancers diagnosed symptomatically | 10,276 – 1200 = 9076 |
Proportion node negative from Table 1 | 31,968/(31,968 + 6275 + 1484 + 1025) = 0.7845 |
Number node negative | 0.7845 × 9076 = 7120 |
Proportion progressing to node positive in 4.5 months | 1-(exp(−0.19 × 4.5/12)) = 0.069 |
Number of additional node positive cancers | 0.069 × 7120 = 491 |
Additional fatality over 10 years for node positive | 24% |
Additional deaths over 10 years | 491 × 0.24 = 118 |
Scaled down by 0.9 for age group 50–<71 | 0.9 × 118 = 106 |
