Table 5 Calculation of additional deaths from progression of DCIS.

From: The projected impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on breast cancer deaths in England due to the cessation of population screening: a national estimation

Quantity

Calculation

Expected DCIS diagnoses

0.0014 × 1,489,237 = 2085

Potentially progressive DCIS cases

0.76 × 2085 = 1585

Proportion progressing to invasive cancer

1-(exp(−0.74 × 4.5/12)) = 0.24

Number progressing to invasive cancer

0.24 × 1585 = 384

Additional breast cancer deaths as a result

0.13 × 384 = 50

Scaled down by 0.9 for age group 50–<71

0.9 × 50 = 45

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