Fig. 1
Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA)-predicted breast cancer risk for a female with unknown family history (equivalent to the distribution of risk in the population) and untested for rare pathogenic variants on the basis of the different predictors of risk (questionnaire-based risk factors [QRFs], mammographic density [MD], and polygenic risk scores [PRS]). Variability due to residual family history of cancer is not taken into account. (a, c) Ten-year risk from age 40 to age 50 years; (b, d) lifetime risk (from age 20 to 80 years). (a, b) Probability density function against absolute risk for 10-year and lifetime risks respectively; (c, d) absolute risk against cumulative distribution. The backgrounds of the graphs are shaded to indicate the familial breast cancer risk categories based on the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines:3 (1) near-population risk shaded in pink (<17% for lifetime risk and <3% for 10-year risk), (2) moderate risk shaded in yellow (≥17% and <30% for lifetime risk and ≥3% and <8% for 10-year risk), and (3) high risk, shaded in blue (≥30% for lifetime risk and ≥8% for 10-year risk). Specific values are given in Table 1. The vertical lines in (a, b) and horizontal lines in (c, d) (labeled “No QRFs, MD or PRS”) correspond to the population risk of breast cancer. Predictions based on UK breast cancer incidence.
