Fig. 2: Design of demographic ABC tests applied on each population using DIYABC and posterior probabilities | Heredity

Fig. 2: Design of demographic ABC tests applied on each population using DIYABC and posterior probabilities

From: History of the fragmentation of the African rain forest in the Dahomey Gap: insight from the demographic history of Terminalia superba

Fig. 2

a DEMOGRAPHIC EVENT MODELS: compare four scenarios to identify the nature and the timing of population size changes using broad time priors t 0 and t 1 = t 0 + dt (effective size priors on Ne: 1000–100,000; Ne1: 10–2000). b Time priors: illustration of the late Quaternary climate changes used to select time priors (t 0, dt and t 1) for testing the impact of particular climatic periods: PrePGP (pre-Penultimate Glacial Period), PreLGM (pre-Last Glacial Maximum), PostLGM (post Last Glacial Maximum). Demographic changes were investigated in the last two periods, using a uniform prior distribution for t 0, dt and t 1: U(0,200 ka). Left graph: variations of deuterium (δD) in Antarctic ice core as a proxy for global temperature since 600 ka (IPCC 2007, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-6-3.html). Right graph: temperature change during the last cycle (since 18 ka) (http://www.lakepowell.net/sciencecenter/paleoclimate.htm)

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