Fig. 4

The time series data recorded by the smart blister packs in ref. ³⁶. and model-estimated probability of parasitological treatment failure at day 28. Each row represents a patient, with each dose taken marked by a rectangle. Shorter rectangles indicate that the patient did not take the full dose. The rectangles are coloured to indicate the percentage of prescribed pills taken by the patient: all pills (black) between 80–99% (cyan), 60–79% (purple), 40–59% (orange), 20–39% (magenta), and <20% (brown). The vertical, red lines indicate the recommended timings of the six doses. For patients who took multiple pills per dose, we have grouped pills into doses if pills were taken within half an hour of each other. In this figure, patients are ordered by the probability that their adherence profile results in treatment failure, according to our within-host model. As the full cohort is large (482 patients), we show two subsets here: the 80 patients with the lowest failure probability (lower panel) and the 80 with the highest failure probability (upper panel). The probability of failing treatment was estimated from 10⁴ simulations of the within-host model for each patient adherence profile. The body-weight data, which is needed to inform the PK model, were not available for this cohort, however, the dosing group (the number of pills per dose) is known. Therefore, when running our simulation model for each patient, we average over the weight range (e.g. 5–15 kg for the 1 pill per dose group) using a uniform probability distribution. Doses taken after 75 h are not shown here, but their effects are included in the model. The plot for all 482 patients is shown in Supplementary Fig. 4