Fig. 3

Crop productivity changes during strong oscillation phases at the FPU scale. Changes in crop productivity, at sub-national (i.e., FPU) scale, during strong oscillation phases of a, b, ENSO; c, d, IOD; and e, f, NAO. The significance of the changes was assessed with bootstrapping (n = 10,000, α = 0.1). The pie charts show global proportions of crop production in areas with significantly increased (blue) and decreased (red) crop productivity during the different phases of the oscillations, while the pie slice in white is the proportion of global crop production that does not show a significant change. The areas where Pearson’s correlation between reported and simulated crop productivity is not significant (p > 0.1) are striped and not included in calculating the global proportions shown in the pie charts