Fig. 5
Sensitivity analysis of the burned area changes in Mediterranean Europe for +3 °C warming to the choice of the non-stationary model. Burned area changes (in %) are estimated considering the non-stationary model NSM (i.e., using Eq. 4) and several models with different climate variables (Table 1). Boxplots also show the uncertainty from the ensemble of RCM projections (NSM-RCM) and accounting for both RCM and regression model uncertainties (1000 bootstrap replications × the ensemble of RCMs; NSM-ALL). The median is shown as a solid line, the box indicates the 25–75 percentile range, while the whiskers show the 2.5–97.5 percentile range
