Fig. 6
Sensitivity analysis of the burned area changes in Mediterranean Europe based on extrapolation. Burned area changes (in %) are shown for each warming level considering the non-stationary model NSM (i.e., using Eq. 4). Boxplots show the uncertainty from both RCM and regression model uncertainties (1000 bootstrap replications × the ensemble of RCMs) if predictors are allowed to exceed historical extremes (i.e., with extrapolation, as in the previous analyses), if eco-regions with temperature projections exceed the range of historical values used for fitting the relationship of Eq. 2 are excluded (i.e., without extrapolation) and if predictors are constrained to historical extremes. The median is shown as a solid line, the box indicates the 25–75 percentile range, while the whiskers show the 2.5–97.5 percentile range
