Fig. 4

Changes in drivers of yield losses in average and low-yielding years for European rainfed systems. Baseline refers to the period 1981 to 2010 and the scenario period is 2040 to 2069. a Two measures of change in average yields are presented. The black triangles indicate changes in potential yields due to mean temperature effects relative to potential yields in the baseline period (1981–2010). The second type of change shown is the absolute difference between the scenario and baseline (circles) of drought (blue) or heat (purple) losses relative to potential levels in the respective scenario (circles) for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). b Difference (% points) between average yield levels and yields in lowest decile of losses for losses from potential yield levels due to mean temperature effects (black), drought limitation (blue), or heat limitation (purple) for the baseline period (1981–2010) and three RCPs (2040–2069). For all panels, maize is shown on the left and winter wheat on the right. Results are shown with (darker shading) and without (lighter shading) CO₂ fertilization effects. Data shown are the EU aggregates with median values across crop model and GCM combinations with error bars indicating the 10th and 90th percentiles