Fig. 3
Ecological and life-history effects on bottleneck signatures. Shown are the results of phylogenetic mixed models of prophet-exc and pbot with breeding habitat, SSD, breeding season length and generation time fitted as fixed effects. a, b Show differences between ice-breeding and land-breeding species in prophet-exc and pbot respectively. Raw data points are shown together with boxplots (centre line = median, bounds of box = 25th and 75th percentiles, upper and lower whiskers = largest and smallest value but no further than 1.5 * inter-quartile range from the hinge). c Shows the relationship between sexual size dimorphism (SSD) and prophet-exc, with individual points colour coded according to the ABC bottleneck probability (pbot) and the line representing the predicted response from the prophet-exc model. Marginal and unique R2 values, standardized β coefficients and structure coefficients are shown for models of prophet-exc (filled points) and pbot (open points) in d–f, where they are presented as posterior medians with 95% credible intervals. Species abbreviations are given in Fig. 1 and Supplementary Table 1
