Fig. 2
Summary of the temporal entomological impact of different IRS compounds. Probability of mosquitoes dying (top row), successfully blood-feeding (surviving and feeding) (row 2) or being deterred (row 3) in experimental hut trials over time. Row 4 summarises the best fit probability outcomes per feeding attempt for a mosquito to successfully blood-feed (red), exit without feeding (orange), be deterred before entering (green) or be killed (blue) for the different IRS products; pirimiphos-methyl: Actellic®300CS (column 1), pyrethroids: lambda-cyhalothrin, deltamethrin and alpha-cyhalothrin (column 2), bendiocarb: bendiocarb (1 spray round per year) (column 3) and neonicotinoids: clothianidin, SumiShield®50WG (column 4). Symbol shapes indicate the different studies (legend key references study numbers in Table 2 corresponding to 163, 2, 14 and 1564, 317, 4 and 1325, 565, 6 and 1666, 7, 17 and 1867, 839, 926, 1068, 11 and 12 are previously unpublished data). Solid lines indicate the best fit statistical model to the mean data, weighted by sample size in different studies, and the dark-shaded area shows the 90% credible intervals around these best fit lines. The maximum and minimum data for each unique time point, for each IRS product, are fitted to capture the uncertainty in predicted performance of IRS products over time, these ranges are shown as pale polygons in rows 1–3 for each product. There is much uncertainty in the measurement for deterrence (row 3) because huts testing products that are sprayed onto walls cannot be easily rotated, we therefore simply fit to the initial deterrence measured and consider the depreciation of the deterrence effect to match that of mortality (further detailed in Supplementary Methods). Supplementary Fig. 6 shows individual study fits for these data
