Fig. 1
From: Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming
Three different commitment types from 2018 and from 2030. a Constant 2018 forcing commitment (SSP2-2018-CONST; blue), committed temperature change owing to default retirement of current fossil infrastructure (SSP2-2018-MID; purple) and zero emissions commitment (SSP2-2018-ZERO; green) all assuming the SSP2 baseline emissions pathway until 2018. b As a, but with commitments beginning in 2030 (SSP2c-2030-CONST, SSP2c-2030-MID and SSP2c-2030-ZERO), and Nationally Determined Contributions implemented from 2020 (based on ref. 34). Shaded plumes show the 5–95 percentiles of the response under each scenario
