Table 1 Reindeer population parameters under five different rain-on-snow (ROS) scenarios

From: More frequent extreme climate events stabilize reindeer population dynamics

Population parameter

Frequency of extreme ROS winters

Very low

Low

Medium

High

Very high

Mean, N

1820

1698

1546

1458

1369

Variance, N

189,040

165,458

152,002

102,965

71,090

Variance, growth rate

0.100

0.099

0.106

0.079

0.062

Quasi-extinction (%)

4.65%

4.59%

4.10%

1.25%

0.41%

True extinction (%)

0.84%

0.45%

0.30%

0.02%

0.00002%

  1. Scenarios correspond to different distributions of observed ROS values (1962–2014), with increased frequency of extreme ROS winters. True extinction risks and quasi-extinction risks are reported as the proportion of the 909,000 simulations (9090 population models [i.e. posterior samples] × 100 simulations) of population trajectories reaching population size N = 0 (during 100 years) or N < 100 (at least once during 100 years), respectively
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