Fig. 3

Determinants of HIV-1 reservoir size and long-term dynamics. a Coefficient plot showing covariables associated with total HIV-1 DNA levels 1.5 years after initiation of ART and 95% confidence intervals. Viral load <50 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml plasma or low-level viremia refer to the time from 180 days after initiation of ART to the first HIV-1 DNA quantification. Reference was defined as viral load, plasma HIV-1 RNA below 50 copies/ml, initiation after first year of HIV-1 infection, transmission group MSM, white ethnicity and HIV-1 subtype B. b Coefficient plot showing covariables associated with the decay of total HIV-1 DNA levels and 95% confidence intervals. Corrected for initial HIV-1 DNA levels using a spline. Viral load <50 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml plasma or low-level viremia or viral blips refer to the time between the first and third sample, i.e., 1.5–5.4 years after initiation of ART. Baseline as in panel (a). ART antiretroviral therapy, MSM men who have sex with men, HET heterosexual, PWID people who inject drugs, transmission group other includes unknown, and transfusion; time to viral suppression refers to time taken for viral load to drop below 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml plasma; CD4+ cell count was measured per 200 cells/µl blood