Fig. 1
From: Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient
A framework for inferring phenotypic adaptive responses using three conditions. a General framework. Arrows indicate hypothesized causal relationships, with dashed arrow indicating that we accounted for the effects associated with years when assessing the effect of climate on traits. b–f demonstrate steps of the framework using as an example one study from our dataset—Wilson et al.69. b Condition 1 is assessed by βClim, the slope of a climatic variable on years, c Condition 2 is assessed by βTrait, the slope of the mean population trait values on climate. d Interim step: assessing the linear selection differentials (β). Note that each dot here represents an individual measurement in the respective year and not a population mean; analyses of selection were not performed here but in original publications, except for a few studies, thus inset d is a conceptual depiction and not based on real data. e To assess condition 3, first the weighted mean annual selection differential (WMSD) is estimated. f Condition 3 is then assessed by checking whether selection occurs in the same direction as the trait change over time, calculated as the product of the slopes from conditions 1 and 2. Red lines and font in b–f illustrate the predictions from model fits. Grey lines and font illustrate the lack of effect in each condition. As an example, if temperature increased over years (as shown by the red line in b), phenology advanced (depicted by the red line in c) and WMSD was negative (as depicted by the red line in e), then fitness benefits are associated with phenological advancement, reflecting an adaptive response (point falls in quadrant 3 in f). Source data are provided as a Source Data file
