Fig. 3: Probability distributions of the surface temperature change.

a–d The global mean surface temperature (GMST) change probability distributions of the 2046–2065 average (blue) and the 2080–2099 average (red) for the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) included in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5, relative to the 1986–2005 national centers for environmental prediction (NCEP) reanalysis average GMST (black). e, f Box plots of the GMST change relative to the 1986–2005 NCEP reanalysis average. The circles, boxes, and error bars represent the ensemble mean, the 16.7–83.3% uncertainty range, and the 5–95% uncertainty range, respectively. The blue, red, and green colors correspond to the international panel on climate change (IPCC) estimate, the estimation based on the equally weighted ensemble and the Gaussian assumption (GAUS+AVG), and the estimation based on the exponentiated gradient average and asymmetric range methods (AR+EGA), respectively.