Fig. 4: Migratory networks and HIV prevalence in the Rakai region.

a Figure shows migration networks at a sub-district level where arrows indicate the frequency of migrants originating from a particular source location. The size of circles corresponds to the size of the total in-migrating population in the sub-district and the size of arrow to the size of the in-migrating population from the associated source location. Color of circles and arrows correspond to HIV prevalence. Labels ISD1-9 denote inland sub-districts 1 through 9 and FSD1-2 fishing sub-districts 1 and 2. Asterisk indicates that the size and color of the circles for Tanzania, Masaka, and Kampala do not reflect the size of migrant populations or prevalence in those locations. b HIV prevalence among in-migrants vs. HIV prevalence among long-term residents at the community-level. Agrarian communities are shown in green, trading communities in yellow, and fishing communities in blue. The best fit line was estimated using linear regression and is shown in red. The identify line is shown in black. c HIV prevalence among out-migrants from fishing communities (dark blue) and out-migrants from agrarian communities (dark orange) stratified by four places of destination. Also shown is HIV prevalence with 95% confidence intervals (bars) among in-migrants by place of origin and whether they moved into a fish community or a trading/agrarian community (light orange). Prevalence and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Poisson regression models.