Fig. 5: Malaria incidence data over the 2000–2015 time period.

Multiple regression (black dotted curve) of malaria incidence data (green) over the 2000–2015 time period, as a function of tree cover loss, the proportion of populations at risk using ITN (grey), and the proportion of populations at risk using ACT (black). Overall malaria risk (red) is determined by evaluating the multiple regression formula for existing tree cover loss, but assuming zero usage of ITN and ACT64, 89. Considering the high R2 of the regression, we attribute the difference between the red and the green curves to deforestation.