Fig. 6: Four-step modelling approach used to investigate impacts of regulated development and compensation on biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Step 1. Quantify impacts of regulated development (shown in shaded polygons in box) on biodiversity (here, indicated by the extent of vegetation types – green shapes in box and on graph). Step 2. Allocate compensation activities (shown as purple polygons in box) to the landscape, according to 18 policy design options. Step 3. Simulate counterfactual biodiversity losses and gains using land-use change models (black polygons indicate counterfactual losses). Step 4. Quantify impacts of compensation on biodiversity (shown as green polygons in box on right) and two ecosystem services (using spatial models), and aggregate their conservation outcomes (i.e. combined impacts of regulated development and compensation, and any counterfactual losses and gains).