Fig. 3: Mitigation of seasonal influenza with mass antiviral treatment.
From: Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir
a Observed incidence of influenza virus (red) based on US surveillance data from the 2017–2018 influenza season compared with typical model simulations without any antiviral treatment (black) or with 30% of cases receiving baloxavir (blue) or oseltamivir (green) treatment. Lines indicate a moving 10-day average of incidence; shading corresponds to the 80% prediction interval across 1000 stochastic simulations. b Estimated total attack rates in simulated intervention scenarios ranging from no cases receiving antiviral treatment to 50% of cases treated. The heights of the columns and error bars show the median values and interquartile range, respectively, across n = 1000 independent stochastic simulations for each scenario. Each stochastic simulation assumes a population of 10,000 individuals, with within-host viral replication and between-host transmission parameters given in Table 1.
