Fig. 4: Public health impacts of expanding and accelerating antiviral treatment.
From: Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir
a The estimated overall reduction in infectiousness in a treated individual resulting from antivirals, depending on the timing of their first dose after symptom onset. Values are areas between the log viral titer curves shown in Fig. 2 for untreated and treated cases. The 0–48 h treatment window assumes treatment times follow the distribution reported in the recent clinical trial8 (Table 1); the 0–24 and 24–48 h treatment windows use compressed versions of the 48 h empirical distribution. The heights of the columns and error bars indicate median values and interquartile ranges, respectively, across 100 stochastic simulations for each treatment window. b Total infections averted by treating the indicated percent of cases with baloxavir within 24 h, between 24 and 48 h, and within 48 h of symptom onset. For each treatment window, we compress the empirical 48-hour distribution of antiviral administration times. c The number of courses of treatment per DALY averted resulting from treating the indicated percent of cases with either baloxavir or oseltamivir within 48 h of symptom onset. For both graphs, the height and error bars indicate medians and interquartile ranges across n = 1000 independent pairs of simulations (baseline vs. treatment scenarios) of the fitted 2017–2018 model.
