Fig. 1: Projected leading uncertainty modes and related historical spread patterns.
From: Emergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific Subtropical High
a, b The two leading modes (EOF1 and EOF2) derived from intermodel empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on projected changes of the western North Pacific Subtropical High (white box) under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5; see details in “Methods”), showing anomalous sea level pressure (SLP; shadings; hPa) by regressing onto the corresponding first and second normalized principal components (PC1 and PC2; Supplementary Fig. 2), overlaid by climatological SLP (contours; hPa). Value on the top-right corner is explained intermodel variance by corresponding mode. c Historical model spread patterns of sea surface temperature (SST; shading; K) and precipitation (Pr; contours drawn for ±0.4, ±1.2, and ±2.0 mm day−1) associated with PC1, and d the patterns of SST (shading; K) and cloud fraction (Cl; contours drawn for ±2, ±6, and ±10%) associated with PC2. To exclude the influence of global-scale bias in SST simulation, the mean SST in 30°S–30°N is subtracted in each model before regressed onto the PCs. Gray boxes in (c) and (d) are used to define SST pattern indices to constrain the PCs (“Methods”). Hatched regions are statistically significant at the 5% level under Student t-test.
