Fig. 2: SARS-CoV-2 prevalence is lower in boroughs with greater declines in commuting movements.

a Estimated mean prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection by borough assuming a test with perfect specificity and 90% sensitivity. b Percent decline in commuting movements by borough during the study period compared to the 45 days preceding 26 Feb 2020. Commuting is measured as the total number of morning transits out of each borough and evening transits into each borough. Note the reverse scale, so that deep blue corresponds to higher prevalence in a and to a smaller decline in commuting in b. c Relationship between estimated prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and decline in commuting movements by borough (Pearson R = −0.88, [−0.52, −0.99]). Points depict the mean posterior prevalence for each borough as a function of percent decline in commuting movements and error bars represent 95% credible intervals for the posterior prevalence distributions. Sample sizes are as follows: Bronx, n = 309; Brooklyn, n = 386; Manhattan, n = 718; North Queens, n = 275; South Queens, n = 58 tests. New York NYP—CUIMC Presbyterian Columbia University Irving Medical Center, NYP—WCM Weill Cornell Medical Center, NYP—LMH Lower Manhattan Hospital, NYP—Queens Queens Hospital, MSH Mount Sinai Hospital, MSW Mount Sinai West. Source data are listed in Supplementary Tables 3 and 4, and provided as a Source Data file.