Fig. 2: Performance charts for the baseline model.
From: Developing a COVID-19 mortality risk prediction model when individual-level data are not available
a Calibration plot, plotting the observed outcome against the predicted probabilities. The diagonal gray line represents perfect calibration. A smoothed line is fit to the curve, and points are drawn to represent the averages in ten discretized bins. The rug under the plot illustrates the distribution of predictions. b Receiver-operating characteristics curve, plotting the sensitivity against one minus specificity for different values of the threshold. The diagonal gray line represents a model with no discrimination. The area under the curve, with its 95% confidence interval, is shown on the top-left. Both panels use the test population of the baseline model, n = 315,000 unique patients. AUROC area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve, CI confidence interval.
