Fig. 2: Future Bering Sea bottom temperatures relative to the ~2.1 OC tipping point.
From: Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse
Bias-corrected projections of survey replicated annual mean summer bottom temperature (°C) for the Bering Sea under CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (a) and RCP 8.5 (b). Annual temperatures (thin lines) and 20 year running mean (thick lines) temperatures are based on survey replicated samples from the downscaled ROMSNPZ Bering10K model. Persistence is based on 2006–2017 average conditions from the downscaled ROMSNPZ hindcast (gray line). Vertical dashed lines represent the start of the projection period (2018). Projections include three global climate models; the Geofluid Dynamics Lab Earth System Model (GFDL-ESM2M), the MIROC-ESM, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM1). See ref. 29 for more detail.
