Fig. 2: Marginal effects of temperature bins on wheat yields.
From: Yield reduction under climate warming varies among wheat cultivars in South Africa
The solid line represents the change in mean log yield if the crop is exposed for one day (24 h) to each 5 °C temperature bin. Dashed lines represent the 95% confidence intervals using standard errors clustered by province-year. These results follow similar patterns to those found in Schlenker and Roberts (2009)43 wherein yields are relatively stable across temperature bins prior to a marginal yield improvement at seemingly optimal temperatures. When critical thresholds are reached, 30 °C in this case, sharp yield reductions occur.
