Fig. 1: Forest plot of incident diabetes.

Hazard ratios based on a Cox proportional-hazards model and adjusted for the confounding variables listed in Supplementary Tables 5, 7, 9, 11, and 13 were estimated separately for each database. The dashed vertical line denotes a hazard ratio of 1.0, which represents no difference in risk between nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) exposure and non-exposure. The black horizontal bars represent 95% confidence intervals (CI) for unmatched models. The blue horizontal bars represent 95% CI for propensity score-matched models. P values derived from z tests for individual databases are reported. Inverse-variance-weighted random-effects and fixed-effect meta-analyses were performed to obtain a pooled estimate of the adjusted hazard ratio of incident diabetes for NRTI exposure (ever versus never). The prediction interval is reported. The estimate of heterogeneity (τ²) and the results of the statistical test of heterogeneity using the chi-square (χ²) test statistic and its degrees of freedom (df) are shown below the plot. The Higgins I² statistic and its 95% CI are presented. The results of the statistical tests of overall effect, the z test statistics, and corresponding P values are presented. All tests were two-tailed.