Fig. 1: Temperature variability results in uncertain climate damages.
From: Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change
a Observed and global circulation model simulated temperature trajectories are plotted here to illustrate the inter-annual variability typically present. From bottom up, the plot includes HadCRUT (observation), run 9 of EC-EARTH-4, run 1 of ACCESS1-0, and run 1 of CMCC-CMS (the last three being members of the CMIP5 ensemble). The four time series are offset to make the nature of the variability easier to see. b Reflects an illustrative normal distribution of the global mean temperature anomaly (μ = 8 and σ = 0.4) through Weitzman’s damage function15 to obtain economic damages as a share of global economic output. The shading traces the ±σ range, ±2σ, and ±3σ of the temperature distribution, and shows that the damage distribution becomes left tailed when the expected value of global mean temperature is sufficiently high. It becomes right tailed when the expected value is lower.
