Table 1 Overview of measures evaluated for the U.S. current measures scenario (left) and impact in 2030 (right).
Type of action | Specific measures evaluated | Projected impact if achieved |
|---|---|---|
Renewable mandates | Binding renewable portfolio standards in 28 states | Renewable generation increases to 26% of total generation by 2030 |
Renewable goals | Significant non-binding renewable goals in 6 states, commitments in 142 cities, and recent renewable energy and/or decarbonization commitments from 24 utilities | Not included in the current measures scenario (achievement of these actions is modeled in the enhanced non-federal and comprehensive scenarios) |
Retirement of coal-fired power plants | Coal plants continue to retire according to announced and scheduled retirements and projected closures of additional uneconomic units | Coal falls to 16% of total generation by 2030 from 27% in 2018 |
Nuclear fleet retention | Policy action in Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Ohio prevents at-risk plants from retiring | Nuclear generation supplies 17% of generation in 2030 |
Regulation of fugitive oil and gas operations | Regulations limit fugitive emissions through equipment standards for new and existing facilities in seven states; Federal standards to limit emissions from new facilities are also assumed to remain in effect but at 75% effectiveness | Cumulative 995 Mt CO2e avoided emissions (2020–2030) |
Power sector carbon caps | Participation in Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) by nine Northeast states | Cumulative 160 Mt CO2e avoided emissions (2020–2030) |
Voluntary mitigation of fugitive emissions from oil and gas operations | Voluntary mitigation actions on the part of oil and gas companies through EPA’s GasStar to limit methane losses | Not included in the current measures scenario (achievement of these actions is modeled in the enhanced non-federal and comprehensive scenarios) |
Energy efficiency mandates | Binding energy efficiency resource standards (EERS) in 20 states | Cumulative electricity savings of 1566 TWh and gas savings of 2360 BCF (2020–2030), or 541 Mt CO2e in avoided emissions |
Energy efficiency goals | Non-binding standards in seven states and efficiency targets in 40 cities | Not included in the current measures scenario (achievement of these actions is modeled in the enhanced non-federal and comprehensive scenarios) |
Zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates | Current zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) mandates in 10 states requiring minimum share of light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales to be zero emissions | Cumulative total electric vehicle (EV) sales (battery EV + plug-in hybrid EV) of 13.5 million (2020–2030), or 139 Mt CO2e in avoided emissions |
Electric vehicle procurement goals | Procurement targets to electrify public fleets in 13 major cities | Not included in the current measures scenario (achievement of these actions is modeled in the enhanced non-federal and comprehensive scenarios) |
Vehicle emissions standards | States and automakers adopt California’s clean cars compromise ensuring incremental vehicle improvements through 2025 | New conventional cars achieve on-road efficiency of 42 miles per gallon by 2025 and remain at that level through 2030; new conventional light-duty trucks achieve 32 miles per gallon by 2025 |
Regulations to mitigate HFC emissions | Regulations designed to phase down and replace HFCs with low-GWP alternatives in California, Vermont, and Washington and federal standards to limit leakage from refrigerants (EPA Sec. 608) | Cumulative 160 Mt CO2e avoided emissions (2020–2030) |
Voluntary mitigation of HFC emissions | Voluntary mitigation actions on the part of supermarkets to reduce HFC emissions through EPA’s GreenChill program | Not included in the current measures scenario (achievement of these actions is modeled in the enhanced non-federal and comprehensive scenarios) |
Maintenance of land sink | No specific actions evaluated for the current measures scenario | Land sink is assumed to remain at current levels (−714 Mt CO2e) through 2030 |
