Fig. 1: Projection of the the number of cases with a changing transmission rate.

(a) in Bahia; (b) in Salvador, and (c) in the remaining 416 municipalities. The parameters κ = 1/4, p = 0.2, γ_a = 1/3.5, γ_s = 1/4 were fixed and h was set to zero for the capital and inland cities. The black dots correspond to the actual number of cases. The vertical dashed red lines are the dates of transition from β₀ to β₁. The blue dashed and full lines represent the evolution of the epidemic with a fixed transmission rate β₀ and with both β₀ and β₁, respectively. The shaded error bands represent 95% confidence intervals of the mean calculated using the weighted non-parametric bootstrap method. Raw data from March 6 to May 4, 2020 are shown in this graph.