Fig. 1: Temperature comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.

a Difference in warming (CMIP6 mean minus CMIP5 mean) at the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100 30-year average) when compared to the baseline of 1961–1990. Red colors suggest a greater warming in CMIP6. The difference is computed from all available CMIP5 (28) and CMIP6 models (28) from the RCP8.5 and the SSP58.5 scenarios, respectively. b Time series of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 global and Arctic near-surface temperature anomaly between 1960 and 2100 (mean of all GCM models), compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. c Comparison between the 28 model CMIP5 global mean temperature anomaly (dark blue, reference period 1961–1990) and the mean of the 6 GCMs chosen for our dynamical downscaling (black), and the minimum and maximum of all CMIP5 GCMs (pale blue). d Same as c but for 28 CMIP6 GCMs and the mean of the 5 GCMs chosen for our downscaling in this study.