Fig. 4: Statistical comparison between GCM temperature anomalies and GrIS melt and SMB anomalies from regional climate simulations.

a Scatterplot of 10-year running means of the annual global temperature anomalies from the six CMIP5 (RCP8.5) and five CMIP6 (SSP585) GCM models (x-axis) and the dynamically downscaled MAR GrIS SMB anomalies (y-axis) in gigatonnes (Gt). The orange and blue lines are second-order polynomials fitted to the data (“least squares”), where the function is given in the figures alongside the R² correlation scores. The anomalies are computed for the 1961–1990 mean state. b Same as a but for the comparison between 600 hPa JJA temperature anomaly over the Greenland domain (60°N–85°N, 20°W–70°W) vs. the GrIS melt anomaly during summer (JJA) in gigatonnes (Gt). c Same as b but for the comparison between the Greenland (60°N–85°N, 20°W–70°N) 2 m annual temperature anomaly (GCMs) and the annual GrIS surface mass balance (RCM).