Table 1 Overview of the twenty-first century Greenland sea-level rise contribution from surface mass loss across all CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios.

From: Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6

Scenario

Reconstructed SLE [cm]

MAR SLE [cm]

Threshold SMB < 0 [yr]

RCP2.6

5.2 [4.4–7.0]

NA

[-]

SSP126

7.8 [3.7–11.9]

NA

[2042-]

RCP4.5

7.4 [5.3–9.5]

NA

[2063-]

SSP245

10.2 [5.4–15.0]

NA

2066 [2037-]

RCP8.5

11.0 [7.9–14.1]

9.9 [3.9–15.9]

2058 [2048–2079]

SSP585

16.0 [9.6–22.4]

17.8 [10.0–25.6]

2046 [2032–2070]

  1. The “Reconstructed SLE” column denotes the 1961–2100 surface mass balance contribution to global sea-level rise from Greenland in cm—reconstructed from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs—with the ±1 SD range given in brackets. The “MAR SLE” column shows the same variable but from the phyically downscaled six CMIP5 and five CMIP6 MAR simulations. The last column shows the year in which the mean of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble drop below 0 Gt/yr, with the values in brackets denoting the year in which the mean ± 1 SD range drops below 0 Gt/yr.