Fig. 3: Predicted COVID-19 importations to African locations over time and by source city.
From: Estimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic
A Daily prevalence indicator (dotted line) summed across all 18 origin Chinese cities (including Wuhan), from our best-estimate scenario, and weekly flight volume from those cities to African destination countries (dashed line) over time. Prevalence peaks on 19 January 2020, while total flight volume peaks on 29 January 2020. B Colored and gray curves show weekly predicted number of cases for different destinations in Africa under Scenario 1. The first case on the African continent was reported in Egypt, on 15 February 20207. Our nine model scenarios predict very consistent time windows in which 90% of imported cases are predicted to have arrived, barring Scenario 2 (shown as solid horizontal bars; bottom panel). C Rank of 18 Chinese cities by fraction of all predicted imported COVID-19 cases in each of the 26 countries in Africa included in our analysis, under Scenario 1. Countries are ranked from left to right by the total number of imported cases from 1 December 2019 to 29 February 2020. Origin cities are ranked from the bottom to top of each column by maximum estimated prevalence.
