Fig. 1: Long-term projections of the mean-state temperature response to external forcing (ΔT) and the associated uncertainties. | Nature Communications

Fig. 1: Long-term projections of the mean-state temperature response to external forcing (ΔT) and the associated uncertainties.

From: More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century

Fig. 1

a–d The six single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), and e, f CMIP5 multi-model ensemble using the atmospheric sub-ensemble method (A-CMIP5; see “Methods” for details) for the period 2050–2099 (RCP8.5 forcing) as compared to 1950–1999 (historical forcing). a, e Multi-ensemble-mean forced response (ΔTF), b, f uncertainty due to internal variability (UIV), c, g uncertainty due to model-to-model differences (UMD) and d, h percentage variance contribution of UMD to the sum of UMD and UIV.

Back to article page