Fig. 6: Mean-state ensemble-mean single model initial-condition large-ensemble (SMILE) projections of the response of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) to external forcing for Europe, the Arctic, South-East Asia and Australia. | Nature Communications

Fig. 6: Mean-state ensemble-mean single model initial-condition large-ensemble (SMILE) projections of the response of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) to external forcing for Europe, the Arctic, South-East Asia and Australia.

From: More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century

Fig. 6

Forced response over each region in each individual SMILE (Δs,F, coloured circles) and the SMILE mean (ΔF, black circle) are shown for the period 2050–2099 (RCP8.5 forcing) as compared to 1950–1999 (historical forcing). The panels show Δs,F and ΔF for a T over Europe and the Arctic, b T over South-East Asia and Australia, c P over Europe and d P over South-East Asia and Australia. Error bars are computed by bootstrapping 1000 times with the matlab bootci function for the mean. We note that the error bars are very small when compared to the model-to-model differences and are not visible in the figure. Regions are the Mediterranean (MED), Central Europe (CEU), Northern Europe (NEU), Arctic (ARO), Southern Australia (SAU), Central Australia (CAU), Northern Australia (NAU) and South-East Asia (SEA). All regions are defined as in Iturbide et al.46. Only the land surface is considered over all regions except ARO, where land, ocean and ice are used.

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